Lets take a look at the United States a country that is
becoming increasingly divided.
We ask if this division could end with a new civil war! Has
the countdown to war begun?
At the stroke of midnight Friday 19 January 2018, the
federal government shut down.
Negotiations crumbled as Senate Democrats blocked a
four-week stopgap extension, this causing the fourth government shutdown in twenty
five years.
Critical government functions did continue, with uniformed
service members, health inspectors and law enforcement officer’s continuing to work
without pay.
Both parties were quick to blame the other. Democrats laid
blame on the Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress and the White
House and have struggled with building an internal consensus. Republicans
declared that Democrats were responsible after they declined to provide the
votes needed to overcome an immigration policy filibuster.
This infighting and
growing vocal opposition to the President is beginning to manifest some darker
resentment.
There is a chasm forming in the US, can this be solved?
Will we see an escalation in violence?
It’s easy to think that a second civil war may occur in a similar
way to the first: two institutionalized factions wielding armies against one another
along strategic fronts.
Generals choosing a
side,
Troops from all sides
fighting to claim victory this once again seeing brother fighting brother.
The outcome a winner-take-all restructuring of the United
States and its power base.
However in this day and age it’s not how wars are fought.
We would most likely see networks forming, tasking small
strike force units, a guerrilla based war, no monolithic forces clashing in
huge face to face battles.
A Homeland conflict would be asymmetrical, as groups split
along racial, religious, and economic lines.
These groups would more than likely use high-value terror
attacks against soft and hard targets.
This combined with light skirmishes along the overlapping
edges of their networks.
These factions may form, disband and reform using their
networks to organize and carry out attacks. Much alike a resistance movement in
an occupied country.
The new civil war would have a more digital element than
other civil wars. The cyber age opening up a new front with propaganda and
media manipulation be critical to all sides.
Network analysis used to map and track these groups across
their digital territories and to identify their backers, funders, and
agitators.
These backers may also be in the form of foreign adversaries.
The US has been struggling internationally with many bad
policy choices causing a souring of many international relationships.
These nations may take the opportunity to fund and support
different sides of the conflict.
Also recent immigration changes have divided families and
provide a group from which recruitment would be easy, these deportees choosing
to fight for a country where they can once again be with their loved ones.
If a civil war doe’s break out one thing is for sure it will
be a long drawn out affair.
The impact of the war would be felt worldwide, economically,
politically and socially.
Some countries could use the time to assert their dominance
over global politics, this could then have the knock on effect of causing more
instability globally.
If a civil wars occurs in the US it could well be the first
domino of a wider conflict.
Love or the hate the US it undeniable that its presence
helps to keep the status quo.
If it was to descend into war the rest of the world may just
follow.
For now, America is held in line with a strong rule of law
and a fairly strong economy this means most people still have something to lose
by choosing violence.
But as the government continues to deconstruct rule of law
and economic opportunity, the shutdown being the most recent sign of its dysfunction
the likelihood of a second U.S. civil war grows.
Do you think The USA
is heading toward civil war?
What global impact do you think it would have?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below
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